September 15, 2011

Post Election Wrap Up

I think overall I did pretty well in most of my predictions, though I may have been off on some of the percentages.  It was clear in Niagara Falls Dyster, Virtuoso and Anderson would win.  Choolokian ran a close third.  I called the LaSalle seat correctly.  I nailed Wheatfield but that was shooting fish in a barrel because there was no way Tim Demler was making a comeback.  But we could spend hours talking about how smart I am.....well, maybe a few minutes at least...but what's the fun in that?  So let's take a look at a couple where I really whiffed.

1) Catchpole loses to Zona:  In retrospect, I should have seen this coming mainly because the mayoral primary in Niagara Falls would bring out Zona's people while the Town of Niagara had very little reason to go to the polls.  Catchpole is a fresh, likable face who I still believe can win the general election if Town of Niagara voters turnout in healthy numbers.  These primaries are always about turnout which leads me to....

2) Mike Tucker in big trouble in the GOP primary.  I have a few golden rules in politics and one of them is that hate and anger are much better motivators than love when it comes to voting.  There is strong contingent (the size of which is debatable) who are pissed off at Mike Tucker over the new garbage plan and reassessment.  They showed up and voted and they probably cost Tucker the election.  This is not an endorsement of Phylis Green it's an anger vote.

Now, the good thing about anger if you're Tucker is that it is hard to sustain.  Once we get into the meat of this campaign, Lockport resident are going to have an "oh shit!" moment when they realize there is the very real possibility that either Green or Mike Pillot could be Lockport Mayor and both are bat-shit crazy in their own way.  Once that light bulb goes on, Tucker wins it off the minor party lines.  And if Tucker does pull out the GOP primary race, he'll be fine one on one with Pillot.

That's my take on primary day.  Onto November!

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