September 18, 2007

Primary Day

Considering the fact that today is Primary Day, we'd like to wish all of the candidates good luck. In that spirit, if you would like to wish any candidate good luck, or predict the winner of a certain race, feel free.

25 comments:

Merrill Bender said...

John Syracuse was one of the first individuals I told that I was considering running for County Legislator of the 18th District.

He and I shook hands and said we would run clean campaigns.

Door to door I tell voters that John is a good guy and a good chiropractor but that we need a stronger voice in the legisaltor.

I wish John good luck and all candidates who have taken up the challenge, the dedication of time, and the concern for their community to such a level as to be willing to put their names into the gauntlet of running for office.

Merrill Bender
Candidate for 18th District for Newfane and Somerset

Vote for a Better Niagara County
Vote for Merrill Bender

Scott Leffler said...

As an FYI, I'll devote today's show to this topic, inviting anyone to call in and voice their thoughts on who they're voting for. Feel free to call and plug for your guy ... or gal.

Fat Tony said...

Merrill,

That was a classy post. I hope you stay engaged in politics and policy regardless of the outcome of today's election.

Frank DeGeorge said...

Predictions: Nothing earth shattering happens today.

Syracuse, Updegrove, Murgia and Sklarski all win. Andrea McNulty wins a close race.

Dyster wins handily in the Falls.

Opposing camps in Somerset split the election for Town Council. Rich Meyers hangs on in a nail-biter, but this could go either way.

Wright Ellis barely hangs on against Shirley Urtel.

Scott Leffler said...

Frank,

The only prediction of yours that would SHOCK me would be Dyster winning in NF. I think he's the better candidate, but do you really think he can beat the Democratic machine in the Falls? I also expect McNulty to lose, but wouldn't be overly surprised if it went the other way. I could see scenarios where Syracuse, Updegrove and Murgia all lose ... but they're faint. I expect Sklarski to be safe. In Lockport, I think the Phyllis Greene regime is done. I think Wright Ellis should win handily in Cambria. Tommorrow will be a fun day to be a talk show host ...

Anonymous said...

Democratic "machine" in NF??

The so-called machine has been out for repairs for years, ever since the Massaro-O'Laughlin/Quaranto split. The oil was drained from it when Anello won and packed his administration's top jobs with Republicans and sycophants.

It seems they can't find the parts to cobble it back together. One part is on backorder with Carm Granto's BOE and the rest of the beast is held together with bailing wire, aged, rusty parts and wishful thinking. Rimmen is trying his best, but he can't do everything himself.

Remember, most of the people who vote are not as engaged in the political handicapping as those who are involved in politics. Usually, the voters tend to vote for the person who has presented himself or herself the best.

While Babe has not committed any major guffaws, most voters will choose the image that Dyster projects.

Anello's people stay home.

Most of the people with Rotella signs either aren't registered or are sporadic voters, at best. Not really motivated. (Think here of the barstool politicians who were going to defeat all the anti-smoking law makers.)

Dyster wins going away. Energetic, smart and engaged, the darling of the progressives and the educated class who will be favored the by the voters who tend to vote in greater proportion in primaries.

55% - 45% Dyster wins. (+/- 3%)

Larry S said...

I like Pasceri and Alexander in the 1st and 2nd Ward. They both seem pretty intelligent, and the last thing the city needs is Stachera back in there.

Anonymous said...

Labarbara vs. Sklarski

This one looks to be a squeaker.

The Town of Niagara is almost as lopsided Democratic as Niagara falls. A first rig suburb, Niagara is populated largely by working class folks who have elected a Republican car mechanic as Supervisor. They also returned Skalrski to the leg, even after he was defeated in the Dem primary by Dave Fascini.

On the other hand, many people in the Town sem to be tire of the disingenuous of Sklarski's leeping in the same bed as the republicans, while claiming to be a Democrat. many, perhaps most, voters don't give a hoot aout which party an individual belongs to, but they do care when it seems that someone is pulling their chains.

Labarbara never stopped campaigning from his defeat 2 years ago. he is affable, energetic and seems to have a grasp on his issues. If his issues match what the voters think is important, he has a fighting chance.

The biggest question mark here is how the DWAI plea will play out with the voters. There is a split among folks who think that it was but one mistake and an that it can happen to anyone (remember, these are working class folks her) and the other camp who think that it was an egregious lapse in judgment which disqualifies him from holding office.

Labarbara has outworked Sklarski, who has largely played a "Rose garden" strategy, using the power and opportunities of incumbency to impress the voters.

Without the legal troubles, i would see this as a walkaway primary victory for Mr. Labarbara.

But call this a toss-up. Whoever wins will win by the slightest of margins. perhaps by only a vote or two, but certainly not more than a percentage point or 2.

Anonymous said...

Tonellato beats Caferella.

Tonallato's roots run deeper in this "rootsy' district. union money will not impress the voter. family ties and community involvement will carry the day. Tonallato wins in both these categories.

Murgia wins again in the 1st on the Dem line but may have real trouble for the Rep line against well-known teacher Marasco. Genova is a close associate of Gary Parenti. Because they seem to think alike, their myopia will prevent them from seeing what the voters really care about. Too bad for the Dems, they could have ousted Murgia from the leg if they would have fielded a better candidate.

Scott Leffler said...

I love all the points of view from the different districts. Keep 'em comin'.

Mike Hunt said...

Anybody have any predictions about the newfane town council primary? i really have no idea who is going to get to republican line.

Clemenza said...

Bob Labarbera didn't send a single piece of mail and spent most of the campaign trying to explain the DWI. If Sklarski takes less than 54 percent of the vote, I will be completely shocked.

Ed McDonald has done no door to door but has mailed some pretty good pieces of mail.
Andrea McNulty has been going door to door. McDonald could have won if he worked harder, but I think he loses a close one in spite of all the money the Dems have spent on the race. He will have no one but himself to blame.

William Wallace said...

Labarbara vs. Sklarski ....
anon, are you kidding, close race?
Do you forget a certain drunk driving incident so quickly?

Anonymous said...

Judge Batt will carry every line but the Democratic. DiPasquali has run a credible campaign which should allow her to retain her own party's line.

Murphy will be the next County court judge

Violante will be DA.. And they said an Italian from Niagara Falls could never carry the County! ; )

In NT, newcomer and Majority Caucus flopper McNulty is sure easy on the eyes, but is that enough?

Probably.

Despite the hard work and effort that McDonald is putting in and the full court press by Rivera in his hometown, the voters in that district have already proven to be suckers for a looker when they selected Vacante over the ever competent and conscientious Davignon.

Butt hen again, perhaps the voters will notice the hypocrisy of running as a Dem to vote with the Reps.

Naw, Mcnulty's just to damn cute!

Clemenza said...

McNulty may be cute but she's also a CPA. The Leg doesn't need another public employee...no wonder taxpayers get so regularly screwed.

And that Danny Sklarski is quite a looker himself.

NT Dem said...

McDonald worked hard? Sure wouldn't know it from my neighborhood in that district. McNulty was at my door not once, but twice...along with the usual assortment of mailers.

I've seen a print ad for McDonald that had his picture, which is the only way I'd know who he is because he never showed at my door.

Clark Griswold said...

I agree that McDonald's lack of reaching out to the voters with anything other than a few pieces of mail is what will let McNulty win this race. As a voter, an effort by a candidate to meet with the people they are trying to gain the vote of for one-on-one dialogue is the most important thing to me. Also, my prayers, along with many others I am forced to assume, will be answered as Green is finally ousted in Lockport. Finally, the Town Board in Somerset will be on its way to a clear upgrade as Rich Meyers and Dan Engert gain victories.

Anonymous said...

I only call em as I see em.

Historically, I'm probably in the 70 percentile range in the accuracy of my predictions. Sometimes I'm shocked but most times not.

And don't discount the mailers. There have been a several successful county-wide races over the last several years that relied almost exclusively on targeted mailers.

ntdem, based on your "tone' I'd guess that you have a horse in this race or your handle is short for "NT demagogue" : )

In any event, looks can count. Remember JFK?

Scott Leffler said...

With all due respect to Miss McNulty, does she actually KNOW anything? I sat behind her at the FAIR meeting last month and her lack of knowledge on the issues was incredible. That said, I'm definately not in favor of having a union boss as a legislator. NT voters seem to be in a lose-lose situation there.

Big Daddy said...

While both men have run clean campaigns, Paul Dyster will easily win the primary. While Babe was right in many of his fights with Vince, voters will want a totally clean slate. That means bye bye to Bob Anderson too.

Clemenza said...

Leff nails it again. If you want someone who knows the issues, chances are they are part of the system and won't bring the change we want. Pluck novices with good resumes like McNulty and the learning curve is huge to the point that there first year in office is almost a waste.

nt dem said...

My "tone?" My "horse in the race" is that I live there and have three Dems in the house. I've never met McDonald, and don't have an opinion of him one way or the other. I was simply replying to someone who claimed that he was working hard on this campaign.

McNulty is new, but when she stopped by my house -- twice -- she at least asked what issues I thought were important.

Mailers have little impact in my house since they go directly from the mailbox to the trash. That probably makes my house the exception, but there you have it.

Her being cute had nothing to do with it, especially since my wife was standing next to me on the front porch;)

Anonymous said...

ntdem

I apologize for my snide remark. It was not necessary.

You points are well taken about voter contact. The personal touch is the best.

But with that said, there are plenty of politicians who get my vote whom I have never met. Walking districts, take a congressional district for instance, is sometime impractical.

But all other things being equal, for the voter who really will vote based upon something other than party affiliation or distinct interest group, the candidate who meets one on one with a person is more likely to get the vote.

Tee2Green said...

I like John Batt on all the lines. He is a great guy and has been a great Family Court Judge.

I have to agree with Leffler on the McNulty situation. She doesn't know anything. I watched her on LCTV one night with Mr. Ross and he answered everything for her. I felt like calling in and telling him to let her answer.

Scott Leffler said...

As an FYI, here's a link to watch the returns live.

Niagara County BOE